Le ministère des finances allemand a publié en 2014 une étude sur les projections à long terme des finances publiques. Autant dire que malgré tout les grands discours sur son renouveau économique, l’Allemagne s’hellénise…

2014-03-25-monthly-report-long-term-sustainability-05

Mais le plus inquiétant se cache dans les hypothèses envisagées. En effet, le scénario pessimiste tient bien plus du « business as usual ».

Source: Dr. Martin Werding, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, in cooperation with the ifo Institute (2014).
T+ (optimistic base variant)T– (pessimistic base variant)
DemographyTotal fertility rate rises to 1.6 children per woman by 2025 and remains constant thereafterTotal fertility rate remains constant at just under 1.4 children per woman
Life expectancy at birth rises to 89.2 years (women) and to 85.0 years (men) by 2060Life expectancy at birth rises to 91.2 years (women) and to 87.7 years (men) by 2060
Net migration stabilises at 200,000 persons per year from 2015 onwardsNet migration remains constant at 100,000 persons per year from 2015 onwards
Labour marketAverage retirement age increases by two years between 2012 and 2035Average retirement age increases by one year between 2012 and 2035
Unemployment rate falls to 3.4% by 2030 and remains constant thereafterUnemployment rate rises to 5.8% between 2017 and 2030 and remains constant thereafter
Macroeconomic assumptionsTotal factor productivity growth: 0.96% per year from 2019Total factor productivity growth: 0.71% per year from 2019
Inflation rate: 1.9% per year from 2019Inflation rate: 1.9% per year from 2019

Comprendre donc que si rien ne change démographiquement d’ici 10~15 ans, la situation budgétaire de l’Allemagne sera hors de contrôle, peu importe sa bonne santé économique.